The Inside Edge
Following the emergency budget last week, many homeowners and landlords are picking through the new factors that have been thrown in to the to-buy-or-not-to-buy conundrum.
A few reassuring points remain:
- The new Government have some measures in place to tackle the wider fiscal issues over time.
- The public sector has scope to cut costs without dramatically pushing up unemployment which should keep demand healthy.
- Prices will be stable or only grow slowly for a fair while yet, allowing incomes and house prices to get that bit more comfortable in their relationship and give people time to clear other debt.
- We are still a nation of aspirant homeowners and property should remain a viable investment; and certainly the only one you can live in!
What about first time buyers?
Many people believe that house prices are unlikely to reduce further, so now could be a good time to take that step on to the first rung of home ownership. The biggest barrier facing first time buyers is getting an affordable mortgage and a big enough deposit.
For us, that’s where the regional building society can help. Knowledge of the local area and manually underwritten mortgages makes Saffron able to help first time buyers in our community. And that extra guidance and support from your mortgage lender makes a real difference when taking out your first mortgage.
What will happen to interest rates?
This is a question which we ask ourselves regularly. It’s a difficult one to call – and though there have been some murmurs that, considering the rise in inflation, the Bank of England ought to lift base rate off the floor, they’ve not moved yet, and when it does, it’s unlikely to be dramatic.
Saffron is prepared for base rate to remain at 0.5% throughout 2010 and we don’t anticipate it rising by more than a percent or so in 2011. It’s quite a conservative projection, but we have to play it safe and reforecast regularly as the climate changes.
Ultimately, though, this is all based on conjecture and opinion. To help you make up your own minds, here are a few facts:
- For the first time since the Thatcher days the percentage of people owning a home in the UK has declined.
- This recession was worse than the previous 2 – GDP fell for 6 consecutive quarters by 6% peak to trough, where as in 1980/81 and 1991/92 it fell 3.8% and 2.5% respectively.
- Industry faired better this time around, keeping more people in work – with unemployment peaking at 5% versus 1980/81 at 10.3% and 1991/92 at 9.9%.
- House price falls were bigger and quicker this time around with a range of 7 – 33%, against ranges of 0 – 12% in1980/81 and 0 – 15% in 1991/92.
- Low interest rates are helping keep repossessions low being at a peak of 6% pre this recession against 15% in both the 80’s and 90’s.
This article was written for thebigpropertylist.co.uk by Michelle Monck DipM ACIM, Head of Marketing at Saffron Building Society.
Saffron Building society is a regional building society that has been providing savings accounts and mortgages to communities in the East of England for over 160 years. They offer a range of fixed rate mortgages and tracker mortgages. They have over 120,000 members and are the ‘most followed’ Building Society on Twitter! Visit their website at www.saffronbs.co.uk or follow them @SaffronBS